Aidan Lyon

I'm an Assistant Professor of Philosophy at the University of Maryland, College Park. I'm also a Humboldt Research Fellow at the Munich Centre for Mathematical Philosophy, a Research Fellow at the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, and later this year I'll be a visiting Research Fellow at the Australian National University (in the Philosophy Department). My areas of research include: Philosophy of Science, Philosophy of Probability, Philosophy of Mathematics, Social Epistemology and Formal Epistemology.

My research is currently focused on the so-called "wisdom of crowds" and the intersection between epistemology and psychology. This research is mostly philosophical, but it is also draws heavily on empirical work concerning judgement elicitation and aggregation. As part of that work, I'm developing the website to test various ideas from epistemology and psychology about how to enhance the "wisdom of crowds" effect.

What I'm up to...

Some recent and upcoming talks:

Jan 22 University of Groningen Workshop on Chance (Groningen, Netherlands): Chance in Explanation
Feb 05 University of Tromso Philosophy Colloquium (Tromso, Norway): Vague Belief
Apr 03 University of Munich Philosophy of Probability Workshop (Venice, Italy): Vague Credence
Apr 23 University of Maryland Philosophy Colloquium (College Park, USA): Vague Belief
May 08 2nd International Conference on Animal Health Surveillance (Havana, Cuba):Online Aquatic Animal Health Surveillance and Intelligence
May 29 University of Melbourne Philosophy Colloquium (Melbourne, Australia): T.B.D.
Jun 26 Australian National University Philosophy Colloquium (Canberra, Australia): T.B.D.


Where I am...

Location map


Lyon, A. (forthcoming). Why are Normal Distributions Normal?, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
Lyon, A. (forthcoming). Kolmogorov's Axioms and its Discontents, The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, A. Hajek and C. Hitchcock (eds.), Oxford University Press.
Grossel, G., Lyon, A., Nunn, M. (forthcoming). Open-Intelligence Gathering and Analysis for Biosecurity, Risk-Based Decisions for Biological Threats, T. Walshe (ed.), Cambridge University Press.
Lyon, A., Wintle, B., Burgman, M. (forthcoming). Collective Wisdom: A Study of Some Simple and Complex Methods of Confidence Interval Aggregation, Journal of Business Research
Lyon, A. (2014). From Kolmogorov, to Popper, to Renyi: There's No Escaping Humphreys' Paradox (When Generalised), Chance and Temporal Asymmetry, A. Wilson (ed.), Oxford University Press.
Lyon, A., Pacuit, E. (2014). The Wisdom of Crowds: Methods of Human Judgement Aggregation, Springer Handbook for Human Computation
Lyon, A., Grossel, G., Burgman, M., Nunn, M. (2013). Using Internet Intelligence to Manage Biosecurity Risks: A Case Study for Aquatic Animal Health, Diversity and Distributions., 19(5-6):640–650.
Lyon, A., Mooney, A., Grossel, G. (2013). Using to Detect Emerging Trends in Aquatic Animal Health, Agriculture, 3(2), pp. 299-309.
Lyon, A., Fidler, F., Burgman, M. (2012). Judgement Swapping and Aggregation, AAAI Fall 2012 Technical Report on Machine Aggregation of Human Judgment, AAAI Press.
Lyon, A. (2012). Mathematical Explanations of Empirical Facts, and Mathematical Realism, The Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 90(3):559-578.
Lyon, A., Nunn, M., Grossel, G., Burgman, M. (2012). Comparison of Web–Based Biosecurity Intelligence Systems: BioCaster, EpiSPIDER, and HealthMap, Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 59(3):223-32.
Wintle, B., Mascaro, S., Fidler, F., McBride, M., Burgman, M., Flander, L., Saw, G., Twardy, C., Lyon, A., Manning, B. (2012). The Intelligence Game: Assessing Delphi Groups and Structured Question Formats, Proceedings of the 5th Australian Security and Intelligence Conference.
Lyon, A. (2011). Deterministic Probability: Neither Chance nor Credence, Synthese, 182(3):413-32.
Lyon, A. (2011). Distributed Surveillance: When Social Media Meets Social Epistemology, Theory and Practice, (2010 World Philosophy Day Proceedings).
Lyon, A. (2010). Philosophy of Probability, Philosophies of the Sciences, F. Allhoff (ed.), Wiley–Blackwell.
Moran, C. and Lyon, A. (2009). Modelling Mine Sustainability – Indicators Based on a Comprehensible Framework, Sustainable Development Indicators in the Minerals Industry (SDIMI) 2009 Proceedings, July: 205-212.
Lyon, A. and Colyvan, M. (2008). The Explanatory Power of Phase Spaces, Philosophia Mathematica, 16 (2): 227-243.